Hi yes I JUST got it working after 3 days, 2hrs on the phone with support each day. The destination URL is where I failed for the most part.
In IIS Manager, under the Server > Sites > Default web site and the site you create in the last steps of the admittedly horrible documentation. Where it says set up an application pool and then gives you zero info on how to create it. Pretty awesome. So my server is wrgflare1 - a and the site that was created and worked was called portal, so the destination URL is
http://wrgflare1 - a/portal. Don't put anything in the site map of the target you're trying to publish. We tried that and it failed.
I have to set it up on yet another server and I'm not excited. Please feel free to ask questions. I got all my projects to publish but one and I'm getting the error you're getting. Still trying to sort that one out.